Research

Life Cycle GHG Emissions of Energy Transition Materials and Equipment

Life Cycle GHG Emissions of Energy Transition Materials and Equipment

Substitution of materials, equipment and low carbon fuels for high carbon fuels is underway and moving forward faster in some countries and economic sectors than others.  Substitution of manufactured equipment for fuels adds “life cycle carbon” to historical and on-going GHG emissions.  To what extent do GHGs emitted in creating low carbon energy economies retard overall decarbonization progress?  Life cycle carbon emissions for the years 2020 through 2029 add up to a minimum of 35 billion metric tons of CO2-eq, or roughly a year’s worth of current global energy related GHG emissions.  Overall life cycle carbon emissions will continue to increase after 2029 at least until direct global GHG emissions are brought under control. 

Toward a More Circular Renewable Energy Economy

Toward a More Circular Renewable Energy Economy

Just as the atmosphere’s capacity to absorb GHGs without affecting climate is limited, so is the earth’s capacity to supply materials to replace those that are used only once.   In a renewable energy context, there are two basic solutions.  First, there is no technical reason renewable energy equipment cannot be built to last decades longer than it otherwise might.  How can renewable energy markets and policies reward durability and long, low maintenance project and system operation even as major supply chain industries continue to thrive on planned obsolescence?  Second, renewable energy material and component recovery and reuse is feasible but not generally either mandatory or economically rewarding.  Will publicly financed renewable energy waste recovery be necessary, and which governments will take the lead in making it work fairly and efficiently?

Resilient Decarbonization Requires State and Local Leadership

Resilient Decarbonization Requires State and Local Leadership

Are California’s energy resilience assets being used to provide energy security for diverse and important sub-sets of individual electricity customers? Yes, but not for all important sub-sets. Has massive deployment of on-site energy resilience assets in California to date enabled their effective use to back up local electricity grids. Not yet. Are energy resilience assets being integrated with grid assets to maximize local energy security? Not yet. Will the doubling of resilient supply assets expected in the next five years materially improve energy resilience in California? Not to the extent it could. Optimally effective use can only be achieved when there is smarter and more flexible local electricity grid operation. The cost of local energy resilience can either be high or modest, depending on whether on-site energy supply and storage assets are used effectively. Especially assets that decarbonize cost-efficiently and result in “resilient decarbonization”. Community microgrids enable effective use of resilient decarbonization assets, but not utility owned solar and battery storage assets. Their role in for-profit utility rate-base building has yet to be demonstrated. The urgent question is whether other stakeholders - cities, counties and states - will overcome utility resistance and lead the way on an affordable energy resilience path that serves all energy users, not just those who have backup on-site.

Local Renewable Energy – Future Foundation for Energy Resilience

Local Renewable Energy – Future Foundation for Energy Resilience

In California, as much money is being invested in locally beneficial solar projects as in large solar projects that export electricity to other areas. Balanced investment in local and centralized projects doubles the rate of GHG emissions reduction by doubling the rate of renewable energy deployment.

Local renewable energy production is becoming the foundation for local energy resilience.

Renewable Energy Deployment Trade-offs Confronting Local Governments  

Renewable Energy Deployment Trade-offs Confronting Local Governments   

Can expansion of renewable energy production in the U.S. be accelerated if “wires charges” for community renewable projects are adjusted to account for local energy resilience benefits and actual project-specific transmission grid usage? How much costly and environmentally controversial expansion of regional transmission systems can be avoided by expanding local renewable energy production for local use?

Renewable Energy’s Role in Local Climate Action

Renewable Energy’s Role in Local Climate Action

The menu of energy related actions that can be identified and prioritized in local climate action plans can be displayed in two main categories. Electricity and gas fuel decarbonization elements are additive, synergistic, and comparably effective in most local cases. They support faster decarbonization progress than renewable electricity alone. They are inter-dependent to the extent energy resilience is best (most cost-effectively and completely) achieved by including gas fueled electricity supply in the local electricity supply mix. Each menu category requires local implementation capacity. Prioritization of the categories should give close consideration to implementation capacity and strategies and actions to upgrade it.

Local Renewable Energy Transition Fundamentals

What steps can local governments take to ensure that local renewable energy transitions are not impeded or sub-optimally economically beneficial due to lack of vision, engagement and preparation?  Four primary local renewable energy transition strategies are to – 1) adopt a locally specific vision, second, 2) identify and fulfill essential local government roles, 3) plan and implement local decarbonization and energy resilience programs, and 4) support growth and maturation of local private sector renewable deployment and retrofit capacities.

Locally Specific Vision. A locally specific vision is a statement of the changes a jurisdiction has authority and aspires to make that empower economically beneficial local renewable energy investment.  In preparation for vision development and adoption, a county or city’s energy sources and usage must be profiled, along with forecasts accounting for trends that are changing the profile.  Inputs to integrated local energy analysis[1] need to be extracted from multiple databases and regularly updated.  So, arrangements for data sharing with energy service providers are essential.

Essential Local Government Roles.  Cities and counties are taking roles in local renewable energy deployment that mirror their roles in other areas - enforcing codes, permitting projects, licensing local service providers and generally securing the public interest in safe, competent and environmentally appropriate services supportive of local renewable energy transitions.  Cities and counties will also take on new roles, assessing renewable resource potential and zoning options,[2]determining and prioritizing which local public facilities require energy resilience upgrades, identifying sites that are suitable for renewable project development, and enforcing local ordinances and regulations governing renewable energy transition services - for example, regulating community renewable energy production and community microgrid operations to ensure equitable cost recovery and service delivery.  Technical and analytical support for energy related roles can and likely will be outsourced, but implementation will require new staff competencies – primarily energy engineering and energy management.  

Renewable Energy Site Inventories. Counties and cities manage land use within and around their boundaries.  Anticipating renewable project developer interest, sites that are environmentally and otherwise suitable for renewable energy development should be inventoried and assessed to determine their economic value for purposes of renewable project development.  Some California jurisdictions now have experience that validates the need for anticipatory evaluations and decisions.[3]

Decarbonization and Resilience Program Planning and Implementation. Local renewable energy transitions result in decarbonization, and they empower local energy resilience.  To be timely and economically beneficial, they require political and technical attention and informed choices. The same trade-offs confront most local jurisdictions, i.e., trade-offs between  1) on-site solar vs. community renewables, 2) imports and local production, 3) new projects vs. retrofits, 4) zero carbon vs. fully energy resilient, 5) expedient vs. cost-efficient actions, 6) formerly affordable vs. newly affordable technologies, and 7) readiness for action now vs. later.  

When vision development and follow-up decarbonization and energy resilience planning is founded on locally specific energy system models and analysis, trade-offs are better informed, and achievable quantitative goals can be set.  Plan implementation requires annual budgets and mature capacity to perform essential local government roles, assess progress, and identify and remove roadblocks.

Local Deployment and Retrofit Capacity Growth and Maturation. In many parts of the US lack of mature local deployment (installation and service) capacity is a main barrier to local renewable energy transitions, not just for solar electricity and heat but also for new generations of energy end use and on-site energy storage systems.

California’s ability to ramp up local solar electricity deployment in the past decade was owed to a cadre of one thousand local solar retailers and installers that grew and matured in the years prior to Federal solar tax credits, thanks to a $3B incentive program funded by the state legislature in 2006.  Other states rely heavily on utility scale renewables to decarbonize energy use, in part because they do not have a robust and profitable base of solar retailers and installers. 

Even in California, the retail solar industry’s capacity to deploy larger non-residential systems is less evenly distributed and less mature than its residential solar deployment capacity; as a result, there are under-served cities and counties.  Capturing local economic benefits of solar energy adoption requires a stable, profitable and growing local market for renewable energy systems.  To this end, cities and counties can incentivize investments in local deployment capacity, invest in making critical facilities energy resilient, and approve ordinances requiring energy user consideration of solar electrification investments.  They can learn by doing and lead by example by decarbonizing their own operations and facilities, by producing renewable fuels and renewable electricity for local use, and by committing to net zero carbon conversions of public schools and local government buildings and vehicles. 

Utility Engagement in Local Renewable Energy Transitions. Energy infrastructure transformations in California enabled by locally produced renewable energy will proceed, absent local government engagement, primarily on energy users’ property where energy transport utility monopoly purviews do not extend.  Building and facility electricity circuits are pathways for electricity arriving at a utility meter to proceed to the finish line of an appliance, light or electronic display.  More robust functionality to coordinate on site production and storage is technically possible and can be economically rewarding.   

Future on-site energy networks will connect to energy storage capacity in electric vehicles and energy storage appliances.  They will evolve to serve as microgrids (aka nanogrids[4]) that match on-site energy use to on-site production when grid electricity service is interrupted for whatever reason, including by the property owner’s choice or by automated decisions to minimize utility charges. Negative and zero carbon gas for vehicles and heating uses will be stored, not only in vehicles but also on-site, first in fueling stations and later in buildings and facilities where gas use and storage can be integrated with on-site electricity production, storage and use.  

Energy utilities have long toyed with theoretical business model adjustments.  For compelling business risk management reasons, energy transport utilities and wholesale energy procurement organizations have not yet ventured beyond business models appropriate to protected monopolies.  They will likely remain primarily energy transporters, grid owners, and wholesale energy buyers.  For insurance and liability reasons they typically play no role in on-site energy management or on-site infrastructure investment.  Through non-regulated subsidiaries operating in other utilities’ service areas, they may play a more active and profitable role.

Land developers and local jurisdictions can influence the scope and location of utility renewable energy investments. Figure 8 shows a solar micro community in a new net-zero-carbon Florida city.  The city will have a population of twenty thousand when fully built out.  A utility-owned 150MW solar power plant already operating on land donated by the developer will supply electricity to residents and businesses at the same prices the utility charges customers elsewhere in its service territory.  Will other incumbent energy utilities collaborate with land developers, local governments and local wholesale energy providers to achieve comparable initial results and greater long term energy resilience?  The answer will vary from state to state in response to state policy and local government initiative.

Local Government Engagement to Unlock Local Renewable Energy Benefits. Energy policy in the U.S. is the collective responsibility of fifty U.S. states, most of which rely on regulated energy service providers for energy policy implementation.  State energy policy is determined in close consultation with regulated for-profit energy utilities who may view local renewable transitions as an opportunity, a risk to current revenue streams and assets, or both. 

California is aiming for state-wide carbon neutrality no later than 2045.  Its core renewable transition strategies are to increase the renewable content of wholesale electricity supply and to electrify transportation.  Where frequent and sometimes long duration public safety power shutoffs occur, expansion of centralized generation causes rather than mitigates local electricity service disruptions. 

A more robust set of state strategies would maximize the affordable decarbonization benefits of large renewable projects by empowering expansion of local renewable supply, local energy storage, zero carbon and carbon negative local fuel production and zero carbon vehicle purchases.  Resulting local investments and capacities are essential to local energy resilience.  As local investments and capacities increase, the scope of energy services efficiently and cost-effectively delivered by regional utility monopolies shrinks, and the scope of services best offered competitively and locally expands, opening pathways and needs for local government engagement, especially regarding energy and economic resilience. 

This means local governments will need to engage more actively in guiding local renewable energy transitions.  Pathways to engagement differ depending on whether local energy service providers are publicly or privately owned.

California cities served by municipal utilities have more flexibility to plan and implement local renewable energy transitions.  However, new municipal utilities are not being formed, in part because Community Choice, which provides local control over one link in the electricity service value chain, can be implemented with minimal financial exposure.  Collaborative municipalization of grid assets prior to renewable energy deployment in newly developed residential, commercial or industrial areas is a more focused and selective framework for local government engagement in providing energy services.[5] 

Jurisdictions served by regional, for-profit utilities predominate.  In these cases, existing relationships need to be renegotiated or unilaterally reset.  For example, San Diego and other California cities are engaged in renegotiating the terms of their franchise agreements with energy service providers.[6]  California cities and counties are also partnering to form additional locally governed Community Choice wholesale electricity procurement implementers. [7]  

[1] Davis, California Integrated Energy Analysis

[2] Contra Costa County, California Renewable Resource Assessment

[3] Renewable Site Inventory Preparation

[4] Local Power Distribution with Nanogrids

[5] Municipal Microgrid

[6] Relationship Reset - San Diego and SDG&E

[7] Community Choice Aggregation

Solar Power Cost, Benefit, and Deployment Capacity Shifts

Solar Power Cost, Benefit, and Deployment Capacity Shifts

A New Opportunity for California Cities and Counties. Property owners in most of northern California now recapture their on-site solar investments in as little as 5-6 years and continue to save money for another 20 years. Their communities benefit as well to the extent local governments act to capture reliability, resilience and equity benefits a thriving local solar industry makes possible. California counties and cities with mature local solar deployment capacity are seeing sustained double digit annual on-site solar expansion. It is as if an exceptionally talented and productive player just began playing for the local team – a player with the ability to lower energy costs, increase energy resilience and enable more equitable access to locally produced zero carbon electricity.

Valuing Local Renewable Energy Benefits

Valuing Local Renewable Energy Benefits

Property owner investments in on-site solar energy deliver significant environmental, economic and resilience benefits to cities and counties. Modest and ever-shrinking differences between unit (per kWh) costs of utility solar electricity supply and unit costs of on-site solar electricity systems point to a growing, beneficial long term role for local systems.

Local Renewable Energy Transition Strategies

Local Renewable Energy Transition Strategies

Expansion of local renewable supply is key to more timely, just, and safe state and national renewable energy transitions. US cities and counties should encourage private investment in local solar energy production because it enables faster local decarbonization and energy resilience; it also strengthens local economies in many ways. Community solar and renewable fuel production makes local energy transitions not only timely but also equitable. Local decarbonization and energy resilience progress requires technically and economically informed planning, which in turn requires greatly expanded collaboration among local governments, energy utilities and local businesses, including energy equipment contractors and retailers, fuel distributors, and major local employers.

Local Climate Action and Adaptation Planning

Local Climate Action and Adaptation Planning

Local climate action and adaptation is a relatively new planning consideration. Carefully planned and implemented, it can strengthen local economies, create local jobs, increase county and city tax revenues, and improve essential services. Local planning is essential because of local differences that cause large local deviations from statewide average energy usage patterns, transportation infrastructure, renewable resource opportunities, environmental concerns, and demographics.

A Collaborative Vision for Clean Local Energy  

In case you missed it, collaboration is in vogue these days, despite, or perhaps because of, partisan divides. 

Collaboration among public institutions is essential when change is required.  Especially when the institutions are mutually dependent. For example, if counties and cities encourage the adoption of new technologies that use or produce energy locally, planning and delivery of energy utility services is affected. If energy utilities offer programs that engage their customers in changing the energy infrastructure inside buildings or vehicles, local governments must account for these changes in their code enforcement, project permitting, and non-energy infrastructure planning and maintenance activities.

What’s seems to move the local carbon footprint needle best and fastest is the cumulative effect of a lot of individual decisions US families and businesses are mostly free to make.  At a minimum they require good credit and modest, prudent initiative.  Local governments and energy utilities can make such decisions easier or harder.  Easier if they collaborate.  Much harder if they don’t.  What would local energy collaboration look like if it became the norm across the US?  To read more, click here.