Substitution of materials, equipment and low carbon fuels for high carbon fuels is underway and moving forward faster in some countries and economic sectors than others.  Substitution of manufactured equipment for fuels adds “life cycle carbon” to historical and on-going GHG emissions.  To what extent do GHGs emitted in creating low carbon energy economies retard overall decarbonization progress?  Life cycle carbon emissions for the years 2020 through 2029 add up to a minimum of 35 billion metric tons of CO2-eq, or roughly a year’s worth of current global energy related GHG emissions.  Overall life cycle carbon emissions will continue to increase after 2029 at least until direct global GHG emissions are brought under control. 

Future Bay takes a systems approach to energy efficiency.  Their system converts off peak electricity to 24/7 heating, cooling and electricity supply using off the shelf heat pumps and the cheapest and most familiar methods of energy storage, hot and cold water.  It exploits basic realities of thermodynamics; for example, that a heat pump works most efficiently when pumping heat across small temperature differences.

Just as the atmosphere’s capacity to absorb GHGs without affecting climate is limited, so is the earth’s capacity to supply materials to replace those that are used only once.   In a renewable energy context, there are two basic solutions.  First, there is no technical reason renewable energy equipment cannot be built to last decades longer than it otherwise might.  How can renewable energy markets and policies reward durability and long, low maintenance project and system operation even as major supply chain industries continue to thrive on planned obsolescence?  Second, renewable energy material and component recovery and reuse is feasible but not generally either mandatory or economically rewarding.  Will publicly financed renewable energy waste recovery be necessary, and which governments will take the lead in making it work fairly and efficiently?